Daily Report— Central Eurasia FBIS-SOV-95-082 Friday 28 April 1995 This report may contain copyighted eneteriel. Copyis ~~ ae DMM maindiemhoars Daily Report Central Eurasia FBIS-SOV-95-082 CONTENTS 28 April 1995 NOTICE: An * indicates material not previously disseminated in electronic form. INTERREGIONAL AFFAIRS ITAR-TASS Carries Press Review for 28 Apr RUSSIA INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Kozyrev Interviewed on Washington Meetings //TAR-TASS] Kozyrev Expects Early U.S. Response on Treaty /INTERFAX] Kozyrev ‘Scaremongering’ on NATO Expansion Deplored /IZVESTIYA 28 Apr] Further on Gore-Chernomyrdin Commission Preparations /INTERFAX] Chubays Speaks at U.S. National Press Club /INTERFAX] Chubays on G-7 Position on Restructuring Debt /INTERFAX] Oleg Davydov on Boost in Trade With United States /SEGODNYA 27 Apr] START II Hearings: ‘Paradoxical Situation’ Seen /KRASNAYA ZVEZDA 27 Apr] Ministry ‘Alarmed’ by U.S. Testing of ABM Systems /J/NTERFAX] U.S. Astronauts Prepare for Mir Mission /IZVESTIYA 26 Apr] NASA To Pay $334 Million for Five Space Flights /IZVESTIYA 27 Apr] Doubts Cast on NASA Contract /SEGODNYA 28 Apr] U.S. Ambassador on Problems, Hopes for Ties /KRASNAYA ZVEZDA 27 Apr] Commentary on Outcome of U.S.-DPRK Talks {Moscow International] DPRK Not Buying Russian Weapons ‘At the Moment’ /KRASNAYA ZVEZDA 27 Apr] Iran Reactor Cannot Produce Weapon-Grade Plutonium /Moscow TV] Yeltsin Comments on Relations With Ukraine /INTERFAX] Yeltsin Grants Interview to TIME Magazine /ITAR-TASS] Yeltsin Aide Disputes ‘Factions’ Forecast /JZVESTIYA 28 Apr] Further on State Duma Chairman’s Visit to Japan Rybkin, Kono View Kurils Dispute //TAR-TASS] Rybkin Comments on Planned Elections //TAR-TASS] Rybkin on Talks With Murayama //TAR-TASS/ Ministry’s ‘Evasive Answer’ on NEWSWEEK Reporter /JINTERFAX] Foreign Ministry Official on Support for NPT /INTERFAX] Ministry Official Views Security in Tajikistan //7AR-TASS] Ministry Favors Gradual Withdrawal From Mcldova //TAR-TASS] ‘Great Satisfaction’ With NAM Guest Status //TAR-TASS] RUSSIA NATIONAL AFFAIRS Political Issues Chernomyrdin Lists Aims of New Electoral Movement //TAR-TASS] Further Chernomyrdin Comment //NTERFAX] Big Business Begins To Back Chernomyrdin /NEZAVISIMAYA GAZETA 27 Apr] Yeltsin Aide: Two Blocs Form Stabilizing Factor /SEGODNYA 28 Apr] Agriculture Minister on Chechnya, Electoral Blocs /SEGODNYA 28 Apr] Effort To Start Two-Party System ‘Timely and Noble’ /ROSSIYSKIYE VESTI 27 Apr] Groups Agree To Work on Common Election Platform //NTERFAX] Ryabov: Elections Will Be Held on Time /SEGODNYA 27 Apr] Move for Six-Month Election Delay Gaining Ground /SEGODNYA 25 Apr] Ryabov Interviewed on Election Preparations /ROSSIYSKIYE VESTI 25 Apr] Open Letter to Yeltsin on Privatization /DELOVOY MIR 12 Apr] Savitskiy on Leadership, Moral Issues /SOBESEDNIK Aprj Provisions of Law on Protecting Judges, Lawmen /ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA 26 Apr] FBIS-SOV-95-082 28 April 1995 Central Eurasia Decree on Support for Science, Technology /ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA 26 Apr] Grounds for ‘Optimism’ Seen in Decree on Science /ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA 26 Apr] Media Issues New Agency Seen as Censorship Committee /ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA 27 Apr] Government Information Directorate Formed /[ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA 28 Apr] Military, Nuclear & Space Issues Lebed Suggested as Army Inspector-General /ROSSIYSKIYE VESTI 28 Apr] General Lebed on Chechnya, NATO, Media /VECHERNIY NOVOSIBIRSK 13 Apr] Stepashin: Foreign Intelligence Targets Defense /INTERFAX] Northern Fleet Feature Shows ‘Super-Modern’ Sub /Moscow ORT] Defense Restoration Work Planned for Kurils /KRASNAYA ZVEZDA 27 Apr] ‘Spektr’ Launch Preparations Under Way at Baykonur /Moscow RTV] Federal Assembly Yeltsin Approves Laws Adopted By State Duma _ //TAR-TASS] Yeltsin Signs Law on Russian Central Bank //TAR-TASS] Yeltsin Vetoes Law on Banks, Banking Activity /Radio Rossii] Decree on Russian Securities Market Assessed /ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA 21 Apr] Provisions of Amnesty on 1945 Victory Anniversary /KRASNAYA ZVEZDA 26 Apr] Duma Geopolitics Committee’s Gusman on Progress /KURANTY 27 Apr] Regional Affairs Reportage, Commentary on Situation in Chechnya Ministry on Search for U.S. Citizen //TAR-TASS] Grachev on Resolving Crisis {Moscow 2x2 TV] Grachev on Cease-Fire Implementation /KRASNAYA ZVEZDA 28 Apr] Grachev Alleges Cease-Fire Violations /INTERFAX] Spokesman on Compliance With Moratorium //TAR-TASS] Opposition Leader on Moratorium /Moscow Radio] Chechen Commanders To Ignore Cease-Fire /Moscow NTV] Forty Dudayev Fighters Said Killed /INTERFAX] ‘Relative Lull’ Along Front Line //TAR-TASS] Units Open Fire on Federal Troops /INTERFAX] Dudayev Explains Chechen Cause ///0LOS UKRAYINY 22 Apr] Groznyy Said Returning to Normal //NTERFA4] Groznyy Meeting on Restoring Economy //TAR-TASS] Use of Air Force, Artillery in Samashki Denied /INTERFAX] Criminal Proceedings Instituted //7AR-TASS] Zhirinovskiy Hopes for Border With Kaliningrad //TAR-TASS] Security Specialist Defends N. Caucasus Deployments //TAR-TASS] N. Ossetia Accused of Hampering Refugees’ Return /INTERFAX] Russian, Ossetian Officials Discuss Refugees //TAR-TASS] Further on Explosion at Komi Gas Pipeline Pipeline Resumes Operation //TAR-TA.“S] Explosion Seen as Possibie Sabotage // scow NTV] Explosion Called ‘Commonplace Event //ZVESTIYA 28 Apr] Official Describes Gas Fire [AFP] Tatar President on Reforms, Ties With Russia /TRUD 26 Apr] Tatarstan’s New Parliament Discusses Organization //TAR-TASS] Pskov Governor Defies Yeltsin Edict on Prices [KOMMERSANT-DAILY 25 Apr] Economic Issues Yeltsin “.ifts Restrictions on U.S. Banks /INTERFAX] Yeltsin Signs Edict To Support Energy Investment //NTERFAX] FBIS-SOV-95-082 28 April 1995 Central Eurasia Yeltsin Issues Decree on Stock Market Operations /INTERFAX] Chernomyrdin: Economic ‘Crisis’ To End This Year //TAR-TASS] Directive Approves Chechnya Protection Funding /ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA 25 Apr] Deputy Minister on Funding Defense Sector /ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA 26 Apr] Observer Discusses Wages Arrears Problems /TRUD 27 Apr] Inflation Rate Slows With Arrival of Spring /ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA 26 Apr] Disposable Income, Turnover Drop in First Quarter /[RABOCHAYA TRIBUNA 26 Apr] UKRAINE International Affairs Minister Views Talks With Iran, Turkmenistan /VSEUKRAINSKIYE VEDOMOSTI 21 Apr] Relations With Russia Described as Normal //NTERFAX] Kuchma Meets Havel, Signs Cooperation Agreement /INTERFAX] Border Demarcation Talks With Belarus Resume /UKRINFORM] Ethnic Greeks Set Up Federation in Southern Region /UKRINFORM] Oil Firm Starts Test Drilling on Black Sea Shelf /INTERFAX] National Affairs Kuchma, Udovenko, Marchuk Respond to Kozyrev Statement /HOLOS UKRAYINY 26 Apr] Deputies View U.S. Visit, Corruption /VECHIRNIY KYYIV 13 Apr] Navy Commander Proposes Nuclear-Free Black Sea /INTERFAX] Naval Forces Barred From VE Celebrations /INTELNEWS] Moroz Discusses Crimea, Power Bill, Future /INTELNEWS] Prosecutor’s Office Declares Crimean Referendum Illegal /UNIAN] Kuchma, Supreme Council To Discuss Crimea Today /INTERFAX] Crimean Delegation Considers Resolutions Illegal /UNIJAN] Tsekov: Not Surprised by Kiev Referendum Response //7AR-TASS/ Parliament Discusses ‘Crackdown’ on Crimean Government /INTELNEWS] Socialists May Join Campaign for Kuchma Resignation /UNIAN] Economic Issues Public Opinion Survey on Economic Reform /NEZAVISIMAYA GAZETA 27 Apr] Kiev Committed to Economic Reforms //NTERFAX] Official Claims Control Regained Over Money Circulation /UKRINFORM] Figures on Market Structure Development Provided //NFOBANK] Energy, Communications Antimonopoly Measures Vowed //NFOBANK] Jan-Feb Trade Surplus With Non-CIS States /INTELNEWS] People ‘Forced’ To Eat Contaminated Food /DEMOKRATYCHNA UKRAYINA I5 Apr] WESTERN REGION Belarus Chyhir: Minsk Seeks ‘Neutral, Non-Nuclear State’ /INTERFAX] France To Grant $80 Million To Modernize Energy Sector /BELAPAN] National Banks Losses Due to ‘Risky Credit Policy’ /BELAPAN] Ministry on Safekeeping of Former Soviet Ammunition /Minsk Radio] Minsk Officials Approve May Day Rally /BELAPA}} Registration of Parliamentary Candidates Ends /INTERFAX] Moldova Snegur Rules Out Union With Romania //TAR-TASS] Snegur Suggests Changing Language Name to Romanian /I/NTERFAX] Parliament Protests Moscow Duma Resolution on 14th “rmy /INFOTAG] Luchinskiy Puzzled Over Russian Duma Statement on Dniester /INTERFAX] Lebed on Implications of Downgrading 14th Army /OBSHCHAYA GAZETA 3 May] FBIS-SOV-95-082 28 April 1995 Central Eurasia Lebed Denies He Was Offered Post in Baykal District /INFOTAG/ Snegur, Hungarian Official Hold Talks on Crime Prevention /INFOTAG/ Unknown Persons Fire Bazooka at Komrat Police HQ /INFOTAG/ Media Campaign Begins To Advertise Privatization /JNFOTAG]/ CENTRAL ASIA Kazakhstan Preparations Complete for Vote on President’s Powers /INTERFAX] Security Chief on Role in Fight Against Crime /Al/maty TV] Tajikistan Moscow Not To ‘Tolerate’ Russian Deaths /JINTERFAX] Russia Pleased With Tajik Consultations in Moscow //TAR-TASS] Rakhmanov Pleased With Outcome of Moscow Talks //TAR-TASS] Tajik Representative Comments After Moscow Talks /INTERFAX] Rakhmanov To Meet Opposition Leader in May /Dushanbe Radio] Opposition Warns of Fresh Clashes in Badakhshan Area /Tehran IRNA] Supreme Assembly Chairman Receives OSCE Delegation /Dushanbe Radio] Islamic Revival Leader on Presence of Russian Soldiers /INTERFAX] CAUCASUS Armenia Foreign Ministry Welcomes UN Statement on Conflict /Yerevan Radio] Health Minister Starts Visit to Romania /Yerevan Radio] Karabakh Official Details Azeri-Caused Damage /ARAGIL ELECTRONIC NEWS BULLETIN] . 75 Azerbaijan OSCE Group Criticized Over Karabakh Conflict /Baku TV] Aliyev Receives Romanian Foreign Minister /Baku TV] Foreign Ministers Sign Protocol /Baku 7V] Azerbaijan Excludes Iran from Oil Consortium /ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA 26 Apr] “Azadlyg’ Leader Reviews Week’s Events /ZERKALO 22 Apr] Founding Conference for ‘Unity’ Party /ZERKALO 22 Apr] Parties Form New Political Bloc /ZERKALO 22 Apr] Radar Facility To Be Leased to Russia /ZERKALO 22 Apr] Georgia Shevardnadze Receives NATO Assembly Delegation //BERIA] Georgia Refuses To Sign CIS Agreements /7bilisi Radio] Abkhazia’s Ardzinba Refutes Shevardnadze Statement /PRAVDA 27 Apr] Strength, Deployments of Abkhaz Militants Noted //PRINDA] Directive Issued Supporting Veterans, Needy //NTERFAX] Interior Ministry Mounts Anticrime Drive in Tbilisi //PRINDA] BALTIC STATES Estonia President Cited on Relations With Europe, Russia /T7allinn TV] OSCE National Minorities Commissioner Received (Tallinn Radio] Russian CE Observers Criticize Meri’s Remarks /BNS/ ‘Jaager’ Soldiers Disarmed, Leader Arrested /PAEVALEHT 18 Apr] Trade Deficit Hits Record High /BNS/ FBIS-SOV-95-082 : 28 April 1995 Central Eurasia Latvia Ministry ‘Bewildered’ by Incident on Russian Border /INTERFAX] Saeima Speaker on Talks With European Parliament /Riga Radio] Economy Constitutes Quarter of National Economy (/Riga Radio] Lithuania Bobelis Condemns Council Report on Human Rights /Vilnius Radio] Accord Scheduled for Associate EU Membership /INTERFAX] FBIS-SOV-95-082 28 April 1995 ITAR-TASS Carries Press Review for 28 Apr LD2804065995 Moscow ITAR-TASS in English 0556 GMT 28 Apr 95 (“Press Review”—ITAR-TASS headline] {[FBIS Transcribed Text] Moscow April 28 (ITAR- TASS)—IZVESTIYA frontpages an article about the situation in Chechnya. The main topic of the article deals with the state of affairs in the information space of the republic. The new republican newspaper Vozrozh- deniye has not been published for two weeks while the Dudayev-published Ichkeria is being circulated throughout the republic. The so-called Dudayev Televi- sion is on the air as well. Incredible rumours are rife in the republic that on May 9 Djokhar Dudayev will ride into Groznyy on a “white horse”’. ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA runs an article headlined “A bandit in red- striped trousers” about the activities of a racketeering boss who operated posing as a Cossack chieftain. He even managed to register a certain society named “Cossack Fraternity” in the town of Dmitrov near Moscow. After he was arrested by police for illegal actions, advocates in very high places stood up for his defence. ROSSIYSKIYE VESTI frontpages an interview with Rus- sia’s State Duma Speaker Ivan Rybkin, who dwells on matters connected with the adoption of the first part of a Civil Code, the work on a Land Code and other documents which lay the foundations of Russian legislation. Rybkin also shared his conception of the economic situation in the country and ways to improve it, the problems of the formation of the country’s budget and a future Federative set-up of Russia. INTERREGIONAL AFFAIRS ROSSIYSKIYE VESTI runs an interview with Grigoriy Yavlinskiy, leader of the socio-political movement Yab- loko, who dwells on the possibility of uniting all Demo- cratic forces at the forthcoming elections in Russia and his vision of a Democratic platform. Yavlinskiy stated that the Yabloko movement is pre- pared to enter into a coalition only with truly democratic forces which agree with the Movement’s views, are committed to democratic principles and repudiate the forms and methods of the present authorities’ actions. ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA, under the rubric “Social Protection”, runs an article about a new Civil Code of the Russian Federation. KRASNAYA ZVEZDA (Red Star) frontpages an article about benefits for the veterans. “Over the past several months, as if making up for the lost time, Federal and local authorities seek to do something for the war veter- ans,” the newspaper writes. TRUD, under the rubric “Moscow and the Muscovites”, runs a column of materials about the problems of the capital of Russia. The author of one of the items complains that Moscow loses its historical architectural image. PRAVDA runs an interview with Marshal of the Soviet Union Viktor Kulikov, who will review the Victory Anniversary Parade on May 9. The Marshal shares his point of view that a parade marking the 50th anniversary of the Victory in the Great Patriotic War should take place in the Red Square, not near the Victory memorial complex on Poklonnaya Hill. The Marshal also expresses his opinion about the present-day state of affairs in the Russian army. This report may contain copyrighted material. Copying and dissemination is prohibited without permission of the copyright owners. RUSSIA INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Kozyrev Interviewed on Washington Meetings LD2804 103695 Moscow ITAR-TASS World Service in Russian 2205 GMT 27 Apr 95 [By ITAR-TASS correspondents Viktor Khrekov and Vitaliy Chukseyev] [FBIS Translated Text] Washington, 28 Apr—The tele- phone conversation which took place on Thursday between the Presidents of the United States and Russia and my meeting with Bill Clinton analyzed Russian- American relations in depth on the eve of the Moscow summit, Russian Foreign Minister Andrey Kozyrev told the ITAR-TASS correspondents. These conversations were businesslike and constructive, and they demon- strated a mood for resolving present and future difficult questions. The accent was placed on a most important aspect: over an unprecedentedly short time, relations between the two countries have gone from a state of confrontation to partnership in the sphere of disarmament and in the political and economic spheres, all in the space of three years. There are difficulties, he stressed; however, the partnership has been justified and has entered the stage of maturity. The question of Russia supplying nuclear reactors to Iran is ore of the spheres of disagreement. The minister stated in this connection that we can expect that a good, frank talk will take place at the Moscow summit, a talk aimed at seeking constructive solutions which take account of the interests of both sides. The IT. AR-TASS correspondents asked him to comment upon the statements by a number of Western political figures that the creation in the North Caucasus region of yet another army runs counter to the spirit and letter of the treaty on conventional arms in Europe. I would like our partners not to come forward hastily with statements without having studied our position beforehand, the minister replied. We discussed that problem in detail at the talks with Secretary of State Christopher Warren on Wednesday [26 April]. We have introduced a number of proposals to the treaty, without destroying the substance of this agreement. This document on the whole meets with our support, but it has to be combined with specific actions. Kozyrev concentrated on the forthcoming meeting of leaders of the major countries of the world in Halifax (Canada), noting that the “eight” had already been formulated as a political institution. There are no polit- ical issues in the world which can be discussed without our participation. As far as participation in the economic round of the meeting is concerned, we are already discussing a number of such problems, such as debts, the investment climate and so on. But there are also ques- tions which we are not required to tackle since they entail financial obligations. The present format of par- ticipation in such meetings is very advantageous for Russia. FBIS-SOV-95-082 28 April 1995 At this stage I am satisfied with the talks which have taken place, the minister said. They have shown that the prophecies of those who predicted the inevitability of a “cold peace” and that we will start to stumble and turn off the road of partnership have been dashed. Nothing is perfect, the skies aren't always clear, but neither is their any turning away from cooperation. On the contrary, partnership is being strengthened and becoming more mature. Regarding the forthcoming celebrations in Moscow on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the victory over German fascism, Kozyrev stressed that we should use it to pay tribute to the contribution which the Russian people made to this victory, together with the allies. This is a good time, he said, to reflect on how to build cooperation and partnership, now and in the future. The leaders of the overwhelming majority of countries have accepted the invitation to visit Moscow. However, the minister noted, there are certain individuals, for example, in the Baltic countries, who can’t see the wood for the trees. Kozyrev Expects Early U.S. Response on Treaty LD2804114995 Moscow INTERFAX in English 1025 GMT 28 Apr 95 [FBIS Transcribed Text] WASHINGTON, D.C., April 28 (Interfax) -Russian Foreign Minister Andrey Kozyrev believes that even before the Russian-American summit of May 9 and 10 Russia will know the U.S. response to its concerns over the conventional arms in Europe limita- tion treaty. He said so in a talk with Russian journalists who accompanied him to Washington. We made specific proposals on the way Moscow’s needs could be recognized without destroying the treaty which Russia essentially backs, Kozyrev said in commenting on his meeting with U.S. secretary of State Warren Chris- topher. Russia wants the restrictions revised on forces stationed on its flanks, notably in the North Caucasian Military District. In Kozyrev’s words, western rejection of the Russian proposals “will not cure the disease but will only put off the treatment.” Asked by Interfax, Kozyrev said that Presidents Boris Yeltsin and Bill Clinton discussed upgrading the bilat- eral cooperation in their telephone talk Thursday. This issue, Kozyrev said, was also discussed in his talk with Clinton in the White House Thursday. “‘The press emphasizes complexities in our relations so as to add drama to their reports but we focus on more funda- mental problems,” he explained. In his words, the Rus- sian-American partnership has brought about tangible results, has been a success and matures. “A good frank talk can be expected in the Moscow summit on issues where the Russian and U.S. positions do not completely fit.” Kozyrev said. “Russia and the This report may contain copyrighted material. Copying and dissemination is prohibited without permission of the copyright owners. FBIS-SOV-95-082 28 April 1995 U.S. will look for solutions rather than be engaged in exchange of reproaches and accusations,” he continued. Kozyrev did not rule out the possibility that a solution will be worked out to the differences over supply of Russian light water nuclear reactors to Iran. He emphasized that by accepting the invitation to come to Moscow Clinton made a wise decision which is highly appreciated by the Russian leadership. Kozyrev went on to say that the U.S. and French presidents and leaders of other countries who agreed to come to Moscow under- stood the basic fact that we had been allies in the war and are partners now while the presidents of Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania overlooked the historic perspective and made “not the shrewdest possible move.” Kozyrev ‘Scaremongering’ on NATO Expansion Deplored MM2704150095 Moscow IZVESTIYA in Russian 28 Apr 95 p 3 [Report by Melor Sturua: “Kozyrev Entreats Americans To Save Him From the GULAG”] [FBiS Translated Text] Minneapolis, United States— Andrey Kozyrev has addressed a U.S.-Japanese- European forum. The written text which he delivered was absolutely precise and clear, although debatable. Kozyrev said that the expansion of NATO via the inclusion of some East European countries creates a threat to Russia’s security and national interests. He had weighty grounds, although once again rather debatable ones, for declaring that this expansion of NATO may lead to the nightmare of a new confrontation. As we can see, Andrey Kozyrev said nothing new. For a while now the aim of Russian foreign policy has been to prevent the former Warsaw Pact countries from entering NATO by all diplomatic means. But, my God, the means our foreign minister used! Departing from his prepared text, he entreated NATO not to throw open the door to East Europe in order to avoid adding grist to the mill of Russian nationalism, which, you see, may devour even him, so he would have to write his memoirs “from the GULAG.” To paraphrase Napoleon, it could be said that this is worse than a mistake, it is not funny. But Kozyrev did not feel this. The nationalists, he said, are using the expansion of NATO as evidence of the failures of the Russian Government, including its foreign minister. Indicating his head, Kozyrev added: “The stones are already landing here.” Does Kozyrev really think ‘or hope that with such lam- entations he can move his NATO colleagues and soften their hardened hearts? Clearly diplomacy is too serious a business to be left to diplomats. This is not the first time our minister's wit has made his audience suspect his arguments are lightweight. But there is another fundamentally important aspect to this topic. Literally the other day, explaining in the RUSSIA INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS 3 United Nations Russia’s position regarding Iraqi dic- tator Saddam Husayn and Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic, Kozyrev remarked: “‘Never demonize people in politics. There are no demons in politics.” An extremely fair comment, provided, of course, you do not take it to absurd lengths. But unfortunately Kozyrev himself is not following his own advice and is demon- izing Russian nationalism. In short, he is scaremongering, but people in the West are not afraid. And they are not laughing either. THE NEW YORK TIMES even described Kozyrev’s departures from his prepared text as “pitiful.” Further on Gore-Chernomyrdin Commission Preparations LD2704190095 Moscow INTERFAX in English 1624 GMT 27 Apr 95 [From the “Diplomatic Panorama” feature: by diplo- matic correspondents Aleksandr Korzun, Igor Porshnev, Yevgeniy Terekhov, and others} ([FBIS Transcribed Text) WASHINGTON, April 27 (INTERFAX)—At the fifth meeting of the Russian- American Commission for Economic and Technological Cooperation (Gore-Chernomyrdin commission) Russia intends to point io continuing discrimination against Russian goods on the American market, Mikhail Tara- sov, international affairs adviser to Russia’s prime Min- ister, told Interfax in Washington on Thursday. He is in the American capital in connection with preparations for the session. “The Americans always protect the interests of their firms and companies, and when a delay occurs, they raise that issue at the Gore-Chernomyrdin commission without immediately,” Tarasov said. “But if Russia behaves in the same way, the issue gets resolved very slowly as a rule.” As an example he referred to the situation connected with the export of Russian hunting weapons produced in Tula and Izhevsk. “The five-year program for delivering these weapons is to yield about one billion dollars, but the U.S., minding the interests of its own producers, introduced additional restrictions and established tough barriers for arms imports,” Tarasov said. “Russia was lumped with Mongolia and China, whose arms exports are banned because of their low quality,” Tarasov noted. In the meantime, he added, “this does not prevent the Americans from displaying heightened interest in certain anti-aircraft installations of Russian-make, particularly in the S-300 complex Belarus already sold to the U.S. “The Americans intend to build similar complexes with a view to selling them to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other countries; this makes one wonder, however, as to how to correlate the striving to purchase This report may contain copyrighted material. Copying and dissemination is prohibited without permission of the copyright owners. RUSSIA INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS anti- aircraft installations with the ban on the purchases of ordinary weapons of Russian make,“ Tarasov pointed out. According to «im, Russia has raised this issue at the Gore-Chernomyrdin commission more than once, and pointed to the need to conduct trade on parity condi- tions. “Our principle is the following: we shall open our markets, and you will open yours. We do not want your aid: just give us access to your market,” Tarasov said. Chubays Speaks at U.S. National Press Club LD2704194195 Moscow INTERFAX in English 1857 GMT 27 Apr 95 {[FBIS Transcribed Text] WASHINGTON, April 27 (INTERFAX)}—Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Anatoliy Chubays said he believed that in April 1995 “Russia is as close to irreversible financial-economic stabilization as never before.” He told a news conference in the U.S. National Press- Club in Washington today that the inflation rate in Russia had decreased by 2.5 times over the last four months and a half. Chubays said he was sure that the monthly inflation rate would be 2 percent or even less by the middle of the year. Chubays said that in particular the financial-economic stabilization manifested itself in the ruble’s fall against the dollar slowing down. He said Russian residents having U.S. dollars had begun exchanging them for rubles “in mass.”” Chubays said this was a very signifi- cant sign. Chubays said the reserves of the Central Bank of Russia were “constantly growing.” He added that “all these processes are completely controlled by the government and personally Russian President Boris Yeltsin.” When asked about the impact of events in Chechnya on the economic situation in Russia, Chubays said, “These events will by no means stimulate the inflation.” He said all expenses would be carried out within the scope of the already approved budget expenditure. Chubays said that expenses on any of the budget items had not yet outgone the fixed budget expenditure. Chubays regretted that the West failed to understand the dynamics of developments in Chechnya. He said about 250,000 people had already returned to Groznyy. Chu- bays said that water, gas and electric power supply would soon be fully restored in Groznyy. He said physicians and teachers had begun receiving salaries. Chubays con- cluded that “all this is certainly very promising”. Chubays on G-7 Position on Restructuring Debt LD2704 193695 Moscow INTERFAX in English 1858 GMT 27 Apr 95 {[FBIS Transcribed Text] WASHINGTON, April 27 (INTERFAX)—The G-7 countries do not have a single FBIS-SOV-95-082 28 April 1995 position on restructuring Russia’s foreign debt, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Anatoliy Chubays told an Interfax correspondent in Washington today. Chubays met with the G-7 finance ministers and banks’ directors in Washington this week. He said he had discussed with them the Russian debt’s restructuring. ““However, I would not draw any final conclusions on the issue,” Chubays said. As it was earlier reported, the G-7 finance ministers and banks’ directors had not yet unanimously agreed to restructure Russia’s debt for a long term (20-25 years). Chubays said his meeting with the G-7 officials had still been useful as “during this meeting we have stated Russia’s position which is very important.” Chubays said Russia would still seek that its foreign debt be restructured. He said he believed that the issue would become more clear in about a month when the meetings in the Paris Club were expected to be held. Oleg Davydov on Boost in Trade With United States MK2704130095 Moscow SEGODNYA in Russian 27 Apr 95 p 1 [Unattributed report: “Russian Federation and United States Trade Turnover To Rise by $1 Billion’’} [FBIS Translated Text] The trade turnover between Russia and the United States will go up in 1995 by $1 billion to reach $6.5 billion, Oleg Davydov, vice premier and foreign economic relations minister, said yesterday. As the vice premier pointed out, the boost in mutual trade this year can be provided not only by the tradi- tional exchange of Russian raw material for American food, but also through more sales of high-tech machines and equipment. START II Hearings: ‘Paradoxical Situation’ Seen MM2704155595 Moscow KRASNAYA ZVEZDA in Russian 27 Apr 95 p 3 [Report by Gennadiy Obolenskiy: “Pentagon May Stake Its All’’] [FBIS Translated Text] The discussion of questions connected with the ratification of the Treaty on Strategic Offensive Arms II [START II] is continuing in U.S. Congressional committees. In this connection, it would not be out of place to recall that the limitations and reductions of strategic offensive weapons envisaged in it, partially already implemented, have only became pos- sible under conditions of the preservation of the 1972 ABM Treaty of unlimited duration. This reminder is appropriate in connection with the paradoxical nature of the situation that has taken shape during the hearings. On the one hand, representatives of the Pentagon and the administration as a whole are expressing a Clear desire for a real limitation of strategic This report may contain copyrighted material. Copying and dissemination is prohibited without permission of the copyright owners. FBIS-SOV-95-082 28 April 1995 offensive weapons (of course, primarily Russian ones). And on the other hand they want to evade observing the basic provisions of the ABM Treaty through agreeing with Russia the kind of parameters of so-called non- strategic anti-missile defense (or theater ABM) which would make this system entirely capable of settling strategic tasks too. The idea of conducting talks on demarcating strategic and non- strategic ABM defense and agreeing on the specifications of the latter in the form of a separate accord was proposed to us by the Americans. Even the specific time schedules for conducting them were out- lined. Reports have appeared to the effect that withing the Pentagon’s apparatus the acceleated preparation of a draft of such an agreement has begun. But the Americans themselves unexpectedly refused to continue the talks. Why? Undoubtedly the emergence of a republican majority in the U.S. Congress plays a fairly major role here. The Congressmen have obviously decided not to be hasty as regards expanding cooperation with Russia and will try to wring new concessions from it. And in this connec- tion, [they have decided] not to be in any hurry with getting up the ABM accord proposed by Washington shortly beforehand. E:ut there is also another side to this matter. The Amer- icans’ proposals on ABM defense have proved to be in direct concontradiction to the limitations on strategic offensive arms envisaged by the START-II Treaty, and may hinder its ratification. And after all, it is extremely advantageous for the United States, and Washington is very interested in its implementation. That it why it should be expected that following the conclusion of the ratification process, the Americans proceed to additional steps to “push through” ideas in the sphere of anti- missile defense that will in fact lead to the collapse of the ABM Treaty. Discussions can also be heard among independent American experts to the effect that once it has achieved significant reductions of Russian strategic offensive weapons, the Pentagon will stake its all, and, using its own homespun interpretations of the provisions of the ABM Treaty, will de facto stop taking it into account. Particularly since in the Pentagon’s understanding, the ABM Treaty will not restrict the theater ABM. Admit- tedly, at the same time, the fact that this is a question of mobile ground-, sea-, and air- based ABM systems, which are banned by this treaty, is being deliberately kept quiet. And I would like to stress the following here. Until the sides agree where the dictinction between authorized and banned activity lies in respect of such ABM systems, there are no grounds for stating unilaterally that the creation of a particular ABM theater of military opera- tions system corresponds to the treaty and does not undermine it. Otherwise, the entire process of arms control might as well be scrapped. RUSSIA INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Ministry ‘Alarmed’ by U.S. Testing of ABM Systems LD2704161595 Moscow INTERFAX in English 1421 GMT 27 Apr 95 {[FBIS Transcribed Text] MOSCOW, April 27 (Inter- fax)}—The Russian Foreign Ministry is alarmed by the fact that this year the United States has started testing new anti-missile defense systems which it has unilater- ally described as non-strategic or theater anti-missile systems. The feeling was expressed at a Thursday briefing in Moscow by a ministry spokesman Nikita Matkovskiy. He drew attention to the fac: that the American side launched the tests (the latest wa: conducted on April 21) before the approval of an agreement distinguishing between strategic and non-strategic anti-ballistic missile [ABM] systems. The diplomat said that since autumn 1993 the United States, Russia and CIS countries-successors of the USSR as far as the treaty is concerned have been conducting talks to prevent the possible violation or circumvention of the ABM treaty in the process of developing anti- missile systems. According to Matkovskiy, as long as the talks have not been completed the Russian side cannot recognize the systems tested in the United States as conforming with the ABM treaty. “The tests can be considered as the attempt of the American side to make its partners in the talks face a fait accompli. In our opinion the continuation of the policy of accomplished facts instead of an intensive search for a mutually acceptable solution can only complicate mat- ters, if not drive them into a blind alley,” the spokesman said. U.S. Astronauts Prepare for Mir Mission MM 2804091095 Moscow IZVESTIYA in Russian 26 Apr 95 p 8 [Report by Viktor Gritsenko and Veronika Romanenko of ITAR-TASS: “U.S. Astronaut Prepares for Flight on Mir, When She Might Break Yelena Kondakova’s Record”] [FBIS Translated Text] Shannon Lucid, the first U.S. woman astronaut, who is to engage in lengthy work on board the Russian Mir station in 1996, and John Blaha, her backup, have been training for exactly three months at the Cosmonaut Training Center of the Russian Air Force (Zvezdnyy Gorodok). The 145-day flight planned within the “Mir-NASA” program will be carried out by two Russian cosmonauts and one American. It will be the second joint expedition, as the first one has been taking place since 14 March 1995. This report may contain copyrighted material. Copying and dissemination is prohibited without permission of the copyright owners. RUSSIA INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS For the first time the crew members will be put into orbit not by one craft but by different ones. The Russians Yuriy Onuirtyenko and Yuriy Usachev are expected to be launcned in the Soyuz TM-24 craft next December. Only in March of next year will Shannon Lucid join them on board the American Atlantis. On the other hand, Onufriyenko and Usachev will quit the Mir station almost one month before the American—in June 1996. Shannon Lucid will return to earth by Shuttle 31 July. So she will spend her last days in orbit working with a different crew, whose members include another woman—Kic + Andre-Dee [name as transliterated], a French woman. Shannon Lucid, 52 years old, and John Blaha (his surname is stressed on the last syllable), 53, have already participated in four Shuttle flights. Lucid made her last two flights on Atlantis (August 1991) and on Columbia (October 1993) together with John Blaha, who was her commander. Shannon Lucid still holds the record for the total duration of flights for U.S. women astronauts—34 days, 22 hours, and 52 minvtes. If the Russian-U.S. flight is concluded successfully, she will overtake Yelena Kondakova, who has “logged” 169 days, five hours, and 22 minutes. Despite the fact that the astronauts already spoke good Russian at the time they arrived in Russia (they studied Russian for three months in the United States), in January thcy attended an intensive course in Zvezdnyy Gorodok and in March embarked on technical training. Since the astronauts will be delivered to Mir and returned to earth by Shuttle, they will study the Soyuz TM craft only to the extent necessary to operate it as part of the orbital complex, as well as on landing in the event of an emergency departure from the station or the Shuttle’s failure to dock with the complex. On the other hand, the systems of the complex and, in particular, the scientific equipment of the new Spektr module, whose launch is planned for 18 May, will be studied thoroughly. In April the astronauts underwent training for weight- lessness in the Il-76MDK flying laboratory, and in May they will rehearse crew operations by landing the descent vehicle of the Soyuz craft on the water of the Medvezhi Lakes not far from Zvezdnyy Gorodok. In September the astronauts will continue training as members of crews along with the Russian cosmonauts Yuriy Onufriyenko and Yuriy Usachev (main crewmen) and Vasiliy Tsib- liyev and Aleksandr Lazutkin (backups). In January 1996 the astronauts have to undergo survival training, which could come in handy in the case of an emergency landing by Soyuz. Lucid and Blaha will be left in a corner of the forest near Moscow unknown to them for several hours or days, depending on the weather. In this way the astronauts will rehearse their actions until the arrival of rescuers. FBIS-SOV-95-082 28 April 1995 NASA To Pay $334 Million for Five Space Flights MM72804092495 Moscow IZVESTIYA in Russian 27 Apr 95 p 1 {ITAR-TASS report: “$334 Million for Five Space Flights”’] [FBIS Translated Text] NASA will pay Russia $334 million for five space flights by U.S. astronauts on the “Mir” space station between 1995 and 1997. An ITAR- TASS correspondent found this out from a source close to the space sector’s leadership 26 April. The specialist emphasized that one Shuttle flight costs the United States approximately the same sum—$350 million. Doubts Cast on NASA Contract MK2804112095 Moscow SEGODNYA in Russian 28 Apr 95 p 2 [Report by Mikhail Chernyshov under the “Commerce” rubric: “Russian Space Agency Hopes To Make a Fast Buck. NASA Is Rumored To Be Ready To Demonstrate Unprecedented Generosity”] {[FBIS Translated Text] The ITAR-TASS news agency reported 26 April, citing “‘a source close to the space industry leadership,” that NASA is going to pay Russia $334 million for five flights of U.S. astronauts to the “Mir” orbital station in 1995-1997. Foreign customers paid much more modest fees to Russia for all previous commercial launches—up to $10 miilion plus per launch at best. Foreign researchers from West Europe or, for instance, a crown prince from Saudi Arabia paid fairly generously to the Americans, but these sums were still smaller than those NASA now allegedly intends to put up. Chiefs of Russian space agencies have become used to complaining that currency proceeds from commercial flights do not recoup their actual costs. If the ITAR- TASS report is true, this means that the Americans are finally ready to pay a decent price for “a prolonged zero-gravity state,” something they are interested in above all. It cannot be ruled out either that the “flight” section of the project also includes a provision for work involving “Alfa.” The sensational report elicits distrust, however, at least because there is no single space industry in Russia: There are the Russian Space Agency (RSA), the Military Space Forces (MSF), the Strategic Missile Forces (SMF), and some other structures anxious to achieve space orbits. Who has been promised the money and for what services in particular? Notably, the leadership of the Russian Space Agency, which traditionally maintains ties with the Americans on a “priority” basis, could not confirm or deny the ITAR-TASS information. This repor* may contain copyrighted material. Copying and dissemination is prohibited without permission of the copyright owners. FBIS-SOV-95-082 28 April 1995 U.S. Ambassador on Problems, Hopes for Ties MM2704121595 Moscow KRASNAYA ZVEZDA in Russian 27 Apr 95 p 3 {Article by Aleksandr Golts: “While the ‘Spirit of the Elbe’ Lives, There Are Prospects for Our Cooperation’”’] [FBIS Translated Text] It so happened that on 25 April I heard two speeches by U.S. Ambassador to Russia Thomas Pickering. In the morning I heard him at a conference organized at the Diplomatic Academy to look at the prospects for Russian-U.S. relations. The ambas- sador outlined a range of questions that Washington considers it vital to put betore the Kremlin on the eve of and, obviously, during the upcoming meeting of the :wo presidents. They include the two countries’ fundamen- tally different approaches to the expansion of NATO, the Russian-Iranian project which is generating cpposition from the United States, and, obviously, Chechnya. He also emphasized that the United Siates supports the integration processes in the CIS as long as they proceed on a sovereign and voluntary basis. Finally, Pickering did not hide the fact that the U.S. domestic political situation, and specifically the criti- cism of the administration’s policy in respect of Russia from many Republican congressmen, could have a neg- ative influence on that policy. In a word, problems have appeared in our relations which will not be so simple to resolve. But the other address given by the ambassador—in the evening, at a reception marking the 50th anniversary of the historic meeting on the Elbe—generated some hopes that this is possible. It must be said that ihe Americans received the Russian war veterans really warmly and sincerely in their embassy. The ambassador was just as sincere when he spoke about the traditions of friendship and cooperation between the two great countries which arose during those difficult years and the great sacrifices that we bore for the sake of Victory. These ideas were also to be heard in the address given by Army General Vladimir Govorov. I think that wicile ti: memory of the Elbe lives—a memory which decades of mutual alien- ation have not canceled out—Russia and the United States will be able to coordinate their interests and reach agreement even on the most acute problems. Commentary on Outcome of U.S.-DPRK Tolks SK2804035495 Moscow Voice of Russia World Service in Korean 1200 GMT 27 Apr 95 [Commentary by Aleksey Kondratyev from the “Today’s World” program] [FBIS Translated Text] According to a report from [words indistinct], the United States has proposed to the DPRK to hold higher-level U.S.-DPRK negotiations on the issue of supplying light-water reactors. However, the DPRK has yet to respond to this proposal. RUSSIA INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS In this connection, station commentator Aleksey Kon- dratyev reports as follows: Quoting the letter of Kang Sok-chu, first vice minister of the DPRK Ministry of Foreign Affairs, to the U.S. Department of State, a Tokyo source reported that Pyongyang has not yet sent a definite reply to the U.S. proposal. Meanwhile, an ROK source reported that Pyongyang had agreed in principle to the U.S. proposal to continue the talks. The surfacing of these conflicting news reports are an indication of the difficulty with which the DPRK-U.S. dialogue have proceeded. The third round of negotia- tions began in Berlin on 25 March and ended on 20 April after numerous periods of recess. According to the DPRK-U:S. agreed framework signed last year, a final settlement of the issue of supplying light-water reactors had to be made by 21 April. However, the Berlin negotiations failed to bring about any results. The nego- tiations ended without reaching any agreement as the United States imposed [kangyo] ROK-model light-water reactors and Pyongyang resolutely opposed them. Now, what is the way out of such a stalemate? The United States has proposed holding higher-level talks. The United States has also said that it is ready even io advance a compromise proposal regarding the issue of supplying light-water reactors. But, the United States has not revealed the details of the said compromise proposal. According to the remarks of the DPRK ambassador to Moscow, Pyongyang believes that it should receive at least one Russian-model light-water reactor. The DPRK ambassador noted that an agreement was made between the former Soviet Union and the DPRK as early as in 1985, regarding the construction of a light-water reactor- equipped atomic power plant. Moscow has declared many times that it is ready to supply light-water reactors to the DPRK. Washington should have accepted Pyongyang’s opinion during the negotiations. Only by so doing would it have found a way out of this stalemate. This problem, however, has yet to find a means for a solution. In the meantime, the DPRK repeatedly declares that it will not tolerate the pressure by foreign forces against it. DPRK Not Buying Russian Weapons ‘At the Moment’ MM72704120695 Moscow KRASNAYA ZVEZDA in Russian 27 Apr 95 p 3 [Report by Sergey Sidorov: “DPRK Is Not Buying Weapons in Russia”’] [FBIS Translated Text] Despite the fact that the Cold War is over, the situation on the Korean peninsula remains complex. This is forcing the Korean People’s This report may contain copyrighted material. Copying and dissemination is prohibited without permission of the copyright owners. RUSSIA INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Army to maintain combat readiness at a high level. Senior Colonel Ro Syn Ir [name as transliterated], mili- tary, naval, and air force attache at the DPRK embassy in Moscow, stated this to journalists. The meeting was devoted to Korean People’s Army Day. According to the military diplomat, in the year of the 63d anniversary of the Korean People’s Army, the coun- try’s leadership “is pursuing the line of the Army’s modernization, the military training of the entire people, and the strengthening not only of possible combat action areas, but also the rear services.”” When asked about the DPRK’s interest in buying modern defense systems in Russia, Ro Syn Ir answered as follows: At the moment we are not buying weapons in Russia. As far as future cooperation in this sphere is concerned, this will depend on the will of the Russian Government and our solvency. Iran Reactor Cannot Produce Weapon-Grade Plutonium MM2704135895 Moscow Russian Television Network in Russian 1900 GMT 16 Apr 95 [From the “Vesti” newscast: Video conversation on reactor deal with Iran by A. Peslyak and Ye. Reshetni- kov, Russian Federation deputy minister of atomic energy] {[FBIS Translated Text] [Peslyak] According to expert opinion a light water reactor, such as the Kalinin nuclear power station reactor and the reactor which the Iranians want to buy from us, cannot be used to manufacture an atom bomb. Protesting our agreement with Iran, the United States and Aleksey Yablokov, a corresponding member of the [Russian] Academy of Sciences, in his 12 April IZVESTIYA article, cite this as the main threat. And so, how easy is it to obtain weapon-grade pluto- nium? [Ye. Reshetnikov] In order to obtain weapon-grade plu- tonium it is necessary to build a plant such as the one in Krasnoyarsk or near Chelyabinsk in our country. [Peslyak] Yablokov claims that it can be done in any laboratory. [Reshetnikov] You must imagine a four-meter rod which has been cut up into small pieces and put through a vast system of chemical processing to extract what you want. This is a question of a large-scale industry which cannot be hidden. This has been confirmed by all the Interna- tional Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] experts. {Peslyak] The author of the IZVESTIYA article claims that it was the Americans who have prevented nuclear weapon proliferation in Iraq and North Korea. [Reshetnikov] The first to sound the alarm were IAEA inspectors who reported that there was a heavy-water reactor and that four fuel rods were missing. Thus IAEA monitoring is relatively efficient. Mr. Yablokov further asks whether it was we who trained the Iranians. Well, FBIS-SOV-95-082 28 April 1995 we certainly did not. After all, who built the industry they have, the experimental base which they have? It was the Americans, the French, and the Germans. The Rus- sians have not trained a single Iranian physicist. Yeltsin Comments on Relations With Ukraine LD2704161195 Moscow INTERFAX in English 1537 GMT 27 Apr 95 (“INTERFAX-UKRAINE” news item] [FBIS Transcribed Text] MOSCOW, April 26 (INTER- FAX)—Presidents of Russia and Ukraine Boris Yeltsin and Leonid Kuchma will meet during May 9 ceremonies in Moscow to discuss a number of key issues, Yeltsin told reporters in Moscow on Wednesday [26 April]. On Kuchma’s latest tough statements on the Black Sea Fleet and Sevastopol, he said “we can speak even tougher than that, but our relationship must be based on cooperation”. Yeltsin Grants Interview to TIME Magazine LD2804103795 Moscow ITAR-TASS in English 1013 GMT 28 Apr 95 [By Andrey Serov and Andrey Shtorkh] [FBIS Transcribed Text] MOSCOW, April 28 (ITAR- TASS)}—Russian President Boris Yeltsin on Friday morning met TIME managing editor James Gaines, managing editor, TIME International Karsten Prager and Moscow bureau Chief John Kohan in the Kremlin. The President’s press secretary Sergey Medvedev, who attended the meeting, said the Russian President’s con- versation with the TIME editors lasted about forty minutes and was extremely intense. The first question asked by the TIME editors was about the telephone conversation between Boris Yeltsin and Bill Clinton on Thursday. President Boris Yeltsin told American editors in general features about the subjects he intended to discuss during his talks with President Clinton in Moscow and about prospects for bilateral relations. A question relating to the forthcoming celebrations of the 50th anniversary of the victory in Europe had a personal angle to it: the Americans wandered whether any of Boris Yeltsin's relatives took part in the war. The President showed the visitors the Book of Memory of the Sverlodvsk region, where he was born. The book lists seven Yeltsins, six of whom were the President’s relative. The TIME editors naturally asked questions about the Chechnya problem. Boris Yeltsin told them he had signed an edict concerning a moratorium on combat activities in Chechnya from April 28 to May 12, 1995. He expressed confidence that the Federal forces assigned This report may contain copyrighted material. Copying and dissemination is prohibited without permission of the copyright owners. FBIS-SOV-95-082 28 April 1995 the task of restoring law and order in the Chechen republic will manage to suppress all possible attempts at staging acts of provocation by Dudayev militants. Yeltsin also said work was in full swing to restore the economy badly shaken under Dudayev and in the course of liquidating his armed gangs. Boris Yeltsin also commented on preparations for the forthcoming parliamentary elections in Russia. He said two democratically- minded election alliances were being formed in the country. One will be headed by Government Chairman Viktor Chernomyrdin, and the other by State Duma speaker Ivan Rybkin. According to Yeltsin, the two alliances can be seen as a prototype of a bipartisan system likely to emerge in Russia and effectively functioning in the United States and some other countries. Sergey Medvedev said Boris Yeltsin handed over to the American editors his replies in writing to the TIME weekly questions. TIME managing editor James Gaines said the interview with Boris Yeltsin would be published in the weekly’s next issue which is due to appear on May 1. Yeltsin Aide Disputes ‘Factions’ Forecast MM2804082195 Moscow IZVESTIYA in Russian 28 Apr 95 p 4 {Article by Yuriy Baturin, national security adviser to the Russian Federation president, and Oleg Dobro- cheyev, staffer at the Kurchatov Institute Russian Scien- tific Center: “Russia Is Not Quite So Fatally Doomed to Stability. Among Other Things, the American Crisis Could Hamper It”} [FBIS Translated Text] The forecast of our country’s political development according to the CIA’s “Factions” methodology that was published in IZVESTIYA recently (5 April 1995, No. 62) is, for a number of reasons, worthy of more attention than the public has paid it, even despite a headline that was unusually optimistic for nowadays—‘Russia Doomed to Stability.” The forecast is interesting, first, as a document that could be a “substantial factor influencing the elaboration of the foreign policy course” of the United States toward our country (as the author of the above-mentioned article assures us). Second, as information aimed at convincing us that these are indeed the conclusions that will form the basis of the formation of U.S. policy toward Russia (a sort of reflexive manipulation: “Let them think that we think...””). IZVESTIYA’s interim conclusion is character- istic: “* There are substantial grounds to suggest that the assessments made by us with our U.S. partners will be borne in mind during preparations for B. Clinton’s May visit to Moscow.” RUSSIA INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS Third, it is, to some extent, an outsider’s view of Russia’s development prospects. But how valid, from the scientific viewpoint, is the proposed method of modeling political processes? How far can the forecast that is presented be relied on? Bright Forecasts 1